Brexit deal 'will cost UK £100 billion per year' by 2030, study suggests

27 Nov 2018

A study carried out by economic think tank the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has suggested that the government's Brexit deal will cost the UK £100 billion per year by 2030.

The study also indicated that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be 3.9% lower by 2030.

The NIESR predicts that, by the end of 2030, total trade between the UK and the EU will fall by 46%; the decline in GDP will cost each UK citizen £1,090; foreign direct investment will fall by 21%; and tax revenue will fall by between 1.5% and 2%.

Commenting on the study, Garry Young, Director of Macromodelling and Forecasting at the NIESR, said: 'Leaving the EU will make it more costly for the UK to trade with a large market on our doorstep, and inevitably will have economic costs.'

Meanwhile, a separate study carried out by the London School of Economics, King's College London and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has suggested that the deal could leave the UK economy 'as much as 5.5% smaller' in a decade's time.

Responding to the studies, a government spokesperson stated: 'This deal will protect jobs and our economy, while respecting the result of the referendum.

'It delivers an economic partnership with the EU closer than any other country enjoys, is good for business and is in our national interest.'

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